Onset of Sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation‐induced transition

dc.contributor.author	Demaree, G.R.
dc.contributor.author	Nicolis, C.
dc.date	1990
dc.date.accessioned	2017-06-07T13:46:12Z
dc.date.available	2017-06-07T13:46:12Z
dc.identifier.uri	https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/5729
dc.description	A statistical analysis of representative sets of rainfall data in the west Sahel region is performed and a jump transition in the late sixties is detected. It is suggested that the main features associated with the record can be accounted for by a fluctuation‐induced transition between two stable precipitation regimes: a ‘humid’ and a ‘dry’ state. A minimal model involving the dominant nonlinearities is constructed and its parameters determined from the data. an attempt is made to arrive at a statistical prediction of the duration of the alternate regimes through the relative stability of the two stable states as deduced from mean values and higher moments of residence times. the behaviour predicted by the model is in good qualitative agreement with the record.
dc.language	eng
dc.title	Onset of Sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation‐induced transition
dc.type	Article
dc.subject.frascati	Physical sciences
dc.audience	Scientific
dc.subject.free	drought; rainfall; Africa, Sahel
dc.source.title	Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
dc.source.volume	116
dc.source.issue	491
dc.source.page	221-238
Orfeo.peerreviewed	Yes
dc.identifier.doi	10.1002/qj.49711649110
dc.identifier.scopus	2-s2.0-0025621455