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    Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

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    Sofieva(2026b).pdf (5.454Mb)
    Authors
    Sofieva, V.F.
    Szelag, M.E.
    Kramarova, N.A.
    Damadeo, R.
    Steinbrecht, W.
    Petropavlovskikh, I.
    Vigouroux, C.
    Maillard Barras, E.
    Zawada, D.
    Tourpali, K.
    Frith, S.M.
    Wild, J.D.
    Davis, S.M.
    Arosio, C.
    Weber, M.
    Rozanov, A.
    Auffarth, B.
    Froidevaux, L.
    Fuller, R.
    Degenstein, D.
    Dube, K.
    Effertz, P.
    Leblanc, T.
    Ancellet, G.
    Godin-Beekmann, S.
    McConville, G.
    Querel, R.
    Smale, D.
    DeBacker, M.-R.
    Mahieu, E.
    Sussmann, R.
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    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2026
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60° N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ∼ 1–3 % per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1 to −2 % per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
    Citation
    Sofieva, V.F.; Szelag, M.E.; Kramarova, N.A.; Damadeo, R.; Steinbrecht, W.; Petropavlovskikh, I.; Vigouroux, C.; Maillard Barras, E.; Zawada, D.; Tourpali, K.; Frith, S.M.; Wild, J.D.; Davis, S.M.; Arosio, C.; Weber, M.; Rozanov, A.; Auffarth, B.; Froidevaux, L.; Fuller, R.; Degenstein, D.; Dube, K.; Effertz, P.; Leblanc, T.; Ancellet, G.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; McConville, G.; Querel, R.; Smale, D.; DeBacker, M.-R.; Mahieu, E.; Sussmann, R. (2026). Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles. , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 26, Issue 10, 7387-7405, DOI: 10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/14756
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026
    url:
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

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