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    SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting

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    Authors
    Marsh, M.S.
    Dalla, S.
    Dierckxsens, M.
    Laitinen, T.
    Crosby, N.B.
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    Discipline
    Physical sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2015
    Metadata
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    Description
    The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modeling system simulating the propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from locations near the Sun to any given location in the heliosphere to forecast the SEP flux profiles. Solar Particle Radiation SWx (SPARX) uses an innovative methodology that allows implementation within an operational framework to overcome the time constraints of test particle modeling of SEP profiles, allowing the production of near-real-time SEP nowcasts and forecasts, when paired with appropriate near-real-time triggers. SPARX has the capability to produce SEP forecasts within minutes of being triggered by observations of a solar eruptive event. The model is based on the test particle approach and is spatially 3-D, thus allowing for the possibility of transport in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. The model naturally includes the effects of perpendicular propagation due to drifts and drift-induced deceleration. The modeling framework and the way in which parameters of relevance for Space Weather forecasting are obtained are described. The first results from the modeling system are presented. These results demonstrate that corotation and drift of SEP streams play an important role in shaping SEP flux profiles.
    Citation
    Marsh, M.S.; Dalla, S.; Dierckxsens, M.; Laitinen, T.; Crosby, N.B. (2015). SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting. , Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 6, 386-394, DOI: 10.1002/2014SW001120.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/2736
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001120
    scopus: 2-s2.0-84932120642
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
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