• Login
     
    View Item 
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
    • BIRA-IASB publications
    • View Item
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
    • BIRA-IASB publications
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Shindell(2006).pdf (4.210Mb)
    Authors
    Shindell, D.T.
    Faluvegi, G.
    Stevenson, D.S.
    Krol, M.C.
    Emmons, L.K.
    Lamarque, J.-F.
    Pétron, G.
    Dentener, F.J.
    Ellingsen, K.
    Schultz, M.G.
    Wild, O.
    Amann, M.
    Atherton, C.S.
    Bergmann, D.J.
    Bey, I.
    Butler, T.
    Cofala, J.
    Collins, W.J.
    Derwent, R.G.
    Doherty, R.M.
    Drevet, J.
    Eskes, H.J.
    Fiore, A.M.
    Gauss, M.
    Hauglustaine, D.A.
    Horowitz, L.W.
    Isaksen, I.S.A.
    Lawrence, M.G.
    Montanaro, V.
    Müller, J.-F.
    Pitari, G.
    Prather, M.J.
    Pyle, J.A.
    Rast, S.
    Rodriguz, J.M.
    Sanderson, M.G.
    Savage, N.H.
    Strahan, S.E.
    Sudo, K.
    Szopa, S.
    Unger, N.
    Van Noije, T.P.C.
    Zeng, G.
    Show allShow less
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Air quality
    Atmospheric aerosols
    Atmospheric chemistry
    Carbon monoxide
    Climate change
    Computer simulation
    Gas emissions
    Meteorology
    Tropics
    air quality
    atmospheric chemistry
    atmospheric pollution
    biomass burning
    carbon monoxide
    climate change
    hydrocarbon
    hydroxyl radical
    Northern Hemisphere
    observational method
    satellite imagery
    simulation
    volatile organic compound
    Africa
    Brazil
    Central Africa
    South America
    Sub-Saharan Africa
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2006
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The result suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa, (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
    Citation
    Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Pétron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.-F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguz, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Van Noije, T.P.C.; Zeng, G. (2006). Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes. , Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Vol. 111, Issue 19, D19306, DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007100.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/4503
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007100
    scopus: 2-s2.0-33746234266
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

    Browse

    All of ORFEOCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplinesThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplines
     

    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
    Send Feedback | Cookie Information
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV