Modelling long-term changes of mesospheric temperature and chemistry
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Using an interactive, bi-dimensional model of the middle atmosphere, we simulate the long-term changes of temperature and chemistry in the mesosphere during the second half of the twentieth century, taking into account the 11-year solar cycle, the increase of water vapor at the tropopause, and the anthropogenic increases of methane and carbon dioxide. It is found that the long-term increase of water vapor at stratopause levels results in a long-term decrease of mesospheric ozone, hence of solar heating. The long-term mesospheric cooling due to this new mechanism is maximum in the lower mesosphere, and has the same order of magnitude as the cooling due to CO2 increase.
CitationChabrillat, S.; Fonteyn, D. (2003). Modelling long-term changes of mesospheric temperature and chemistry. , Advances in Space Research, Vol. 32, Issue 9, 1689-1700, DOI: 10.1016/S0273-1177(03)90464-9.