Self-Oscillations, External Forcings, and Climate Predictability
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A class of nonlinear climate models involving two simultaneously stable states, one stationary and one time-periodic, is analyzed. The evolution is cast in a universal, 'normal form', from which a basic difference between 'radial' and 'phase' variables emerges. In particular, it is shown that the phase variable has poor stability properties which are at the origin of progressive loss of predictability when the oscillator is autonomous.
CitationNicolis, C. (1984). Self-Oscillations, External Forcings, and Climate Predictability. (Berger, A., Ed.), Milankovitch and Climate: Understanding the Response to Astronomical Forcing, Vol. 126, 637-652, DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-4841-4_11.