RMI-EPS: a prototype convection-permitting EPS for Belgium
| dc.contributor.author | Smet, Geert | |
| dc.coverage.spatial | Belgium | en_US |
| dc.coverage.temporal | 2015-2017 | en_US |
| dc.date | 2017-01-31 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2018-09-06T15:29:52Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2018-09-06T15:29:52Z | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Smet, Geert (2017-01-31). RMI-EPS: a prototype convection-permitting EPS for Belgium, ALADIN-HIRLAM Newsletter, Vol. 8, 73-79. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7057 | |
| dc.description | In recent years, there have been several high-profile thunderstorms in Belgium, in particular the Pukkelpop thunderstorm of 2011, resulting in five casualties, and the Pentecost storms of 2014, leading to hundreds of million euros of damage. These cases highlighted again the importance of having a good forecast and warning system for severe weather. Probabilistic guidance from ensemble forecasts should be an important forecast tool for these events, since predicting their exact timing, location and intensity is generally very difficult, if not impossible. With improved prediction of severe weather in mind, most European countries have started with the development of convection-permitting EPS in the last few years. At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), an experimental high-resolution (2.5km) ensemble with 11 ALARO members and 11 AROME members is currently being tested. This is meant to be a prototype for a future operational convection-permitting EPS over Belgium. In this article, we describe the current set-up of the system and discuss some forecast results for several thunderstorm episodes in August 2015. The performance of the ALARO and AROME members, and the usefulness of combining them in an ensemble is investigated. Additionally, a comparison is made with the global EPS of ECMWF and the pan-European mesoscale GLAMEPS. We conclude with our future plans toward an operational convection-permitting RMI-EPS. | en_US |
| dc.language | eng | en_US |
| dc.title | RMI-EPS: a prototype convection-permitting EPS for Belgium | en_US |
| dc.type | Article | en_US |
| dc.subject.frascati | Earth and related Environmental sciences | en_US |
| dc.audience | Scientific | en_US |
| dc.subject.free | Numerical Weather Prediction | en_US |
| dc.subject.free | Ensemble forecasting | en_US |
| dc.subject.free | Thunderstorms | en_US |
| Orfeo.peerreviewed | No | en_US |
