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    Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios

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    Authors
    Elguindi, N.
    Granier, C.
    Stavrakou, T.
    Darras, S.
    Bauwens, M.
    Cao, H.
    Chen, C.
    Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.
    Dubovik, O.
    Fu, T.M.
    Henze, D.K.
    Jiang, Z.
    Keita, S.
    Kuenen, J.J.P.
    Kurokawa, J.
    Liousse, C.
    Miyazaki, K.
    Müller, J.-F.
    Qu, Z.
    Solmon, F.
    Zheng, B.
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    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Anthropogenic surface emissions
    Inverse Modelling
    Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    Air quality modelling
    Emission inventories
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2020
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom‐up inventories in some regions for certain species and even less in the case of Chinese CO emissions. In general, the largest discrepancies are found outside of regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where the most accurate and detailed information on emissions is available. In some regions such as China, which has recently undergone dynamical economic growth and changes in air quality regulations, the top‐down estimates better capture recent emission trends than global bottom‐up inventories. These results show the potential of top‐down estimates to complement bottom‐up inventories and to aide in the development of emission scenarios, particularly in regions where global inventories lack the necessary up‐to‐date and accurate information regarding regional activity data and emission factors such as Africa and India. Areas of future work aimed at quantifying and reducing uncertainty are also highlighted. A regional comparison of recent CO and NOx trends in the five SSPs indicate that SSP126, a strong pollution control scenario, best represents the trends from the top‐down and regional bottom‐up inventories in the United States, Europe, and China, while SSP460, a low‐pollution control scenario, lies closest to actual trends in West Africa. This analysis can be useful for air quality forecasting and near‐future pollution control/mitigation policy studies.
    Citation
    Elguindi, N.; Granier, C.; Stavrakou, T.; Darras, S.; Bauwens, M.; Cao, H.; Chen, C.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Dubovik, O.; Fu, T.M.; Henze, D.K.; Jiang, Z.; Keita, S.; Kuenen, J.J.P.; Kurokawa, J.; Liousse, C.; Miyazaki, K.; Müller, J.-F.; Qu, Z.; Solmon, F.; Zheng, B. (2020). Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios. , Earth's Future, Vol. 8, Issue 8, e2020EF001520, DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001520.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7577
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001520
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

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