The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s
| dc.contributor.author | Ozer, P. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Erpicum, M. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Demarée, G. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Vandiepenbeeck, M. | |
| dc.coverage.temporal | 21st century | |
| dc.date | 2003 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-03-07T16:16:40Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-12-09T09:54:47Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-03-07T16:16:40Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-12-09T09:54:47Z | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8985 | |
| dc.description | The severe drought that affects the Sahel since the late 1960s has been very closely studied and monitored during the last three decades. Recently, after several wet years, it was questioned from a statistical point of view whether the drought was over. The conclusions of a recent study were that the rainfall deficit was not over at the end of 2000 and that the drought continues. The analysis of the change points in the station rainfall time series suggests differentiating these findings. There is now growing evidence that there is a potential shift towards a more humid state. However, the present analysis shows that the assumption that a significant increase in rainfall may have occurred around the early 1990s could onldy be verified at the customary confidence level in about 10 years from now. La sécheresse qui touche la région sahélienne depuis la fin des années soixante a été extrêmement bien étudiée et suivie au cours des trois dernières décennies. Récemment, à la suite de quelques années fortement pluvieuses, certaines recherches ont été menées pour tenter de voir si cette sécheresse était statistiquement terminée. Les conclusions d'une récente étude montrent que ce déficit pluviométrique n'est pas terminé en fin 2000 et que la sécheresse continue. Sur la base de l'analyse de la première rupture pluviométrique, nous pensons qu'il est nécessaire de nuancer ces propos. Plusieurs signes suggèrent qu'une tendance vers une période plus humide pourrait s'être amorcée aux alentours des années 1990. Cependant, la continuité de la période de sécheresse ou l'identification d'une rupture pluviométrique vers des conditions plus humides ne pourra se vérifier statistiquement que dans une dizaine d'années. | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | IRM | |
| dc.publisher | KMI | |
| dc.publisher | RMI | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Hydrological Sciences—Journal—des Sciences Hydrologiques, 48(3) June 2003, pp. 489–496. | |
| dc.title | The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s | |
| dc.type | Article | |
| dc.subject.frascati | Earth and related Environmental sciences | |
| dc.audience | General Public | |
| dc.audience | Scientific | |
| dc.subject.free | Sahel | |
| dc.subject.free | rainfall | |
| dc.subject.free | Pettitt test | |
| dc.subject.free | discontinuity | |
| dc.subject.free | Sahel | |
| dc.subject.free | Précipitations | |
| dc.subject.free | test de Pettitt | |
| dc.subject.free | rupture de tendance | |
| dc.source.issue | Hydrological Sciences—Journal—des Sciences Hydrologiques, 48(3) June 2003, pp. 489–496. | |
| dc.source.page | PP. 489-496 | |
| Orfeo.peerreviewed | Not pertinent |
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