The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model

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Authors
Papaioannou, A.
Vainio, R.
Raukunen, O.
Jiggens, P.
Aran, A.
Dierckxsens, M.
Mallios, S.A.
Paassilta, M.
Anastasiadis, A.
Discipline
Physical sciences
Subject
solar flares
coronal mass ejections
solar energetic particles
operational tool
validation
radiation storms
Audience
Scientific
Date
2022Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA’s future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.
Citation
Papaioannou, A.; Vainio, R.; Raukunen, O.; Jiggens, P.; Aran, A.; Dierckxsens, M.; Mallios, S.A.; Paassilta, M.; Anastasiadis, A. (2022). The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model. , Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Vol. 12, A24, DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2022019.Identifiers
scopus:
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng