• Login
     
    View Item 
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
    • BIRA-IASB publications
    • View Item
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
    • BIRA-IASB publications
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    The global atmospheric environment for the next generation

    View/Open
    Dentener(2006).pdf (930.6Kb)
    Authors
    Dentener, F.
    Stevenson, D.
    Ellingsen, K.
    Van Noije, T.
    Schultz, M.
    Amann, M.
    Atherton, C.
    Bell, N.
    Bergmann, D.
    Bey, I.
    Bouwman, L.
    Butler, T.
    Cofala, J.
    Collins, B.
    Drevet, J.
    Doherty, R.
    Eickhout, B.
    Eskes, H.
    Fiore, A.
    Gauss, M.
    Hauglustaine, D.
    Horowitz, L.
    Isaksen, I.S.A.
    Josse, B.
    Lawrence, M.
    Krol, M.
    Lamarque, J.F.
    Montanaro, V.
    Müller, J.F.
    Peuch, V.H.
    Pitari, G.
    Pyle, J.
    Rast, S.
    Rodriguez, J.
    Sanderson, M.
    Savage, N.H.
    Shindell, D.
    Strahan, S.
    Szopa, S.
    Sudo, K.
    Van Dingenen, R.
    Wild, O.
    Zeng, G.
    Show allShow less
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Air quality legislation
    Air quality policy objectives
    Ensemble mean model
    Wet depositions
    Air quality
    Ecosystems
    Environmental impact
    Global warming
    Industrial emissions
    Mathematical models
    Nitrogen
    Ozone
    Atmospheric chemistry
    methane
    nitrogen
    ozone
    Air quality
    Atmospheric chemistry
    Ecosystems
    Environmental impact
    Global warming
    Industrial emissions
    Mathematical models
    Nitrogen
    Ozone
    air quality
    atmospheric pollution
    climate change
    environmental legislation
    environmental modeling
    global change
    nitric oxide
    ozone
    pollution exposure
    wet deposition
    Africa
    air quality
    article
    atmospheric transport
    climate change
    ecosystem
    Europe
    eutrophication
    exhaust gas
    industrialization
    law
    mathematical model
    nitrogen deposition
    photooxidation
    South America
    South Asia
    Southeast Asia
    troposphere
    United States
    water vapor
    world health organization
    Air Pollutants
    Air Pollution
    Animals
    Atmosphere
    Ecology
    Ecosystem
    Environmental Monitoring
    Forecasting
    Greenhouse Effect
    Humans
    Nitrogen
    Ozone
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2006
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO 2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 ± 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 ± 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated ±1 σ standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 ± 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 ± 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 ± 15 and 155 ± 37 mW m-2 for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 ± 15 mW m-2 for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m-2 yr-1. These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
    Citation
    Dentener, F.; Stevenson, D.; Ellingsen, K.; Van Noije, T.; Schultz, M.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Bouwman, L.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, B.; Drevet, J.; Doherty, R.; Eickhout, B.; Eskes, H.; Fiore, A.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Josse, B.; Lawrence, M.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J.F.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.F.; Peuch, V.H.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Sanderson, M.; Savage, N.H.; Shindell, D.; Strahan, S.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Van Dingenen, R.; Wild, O.; Zeng, G. (2006). The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. , Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 40, Issue 11, 3586-3594, DOI: 10.1021/es0523845.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/4489
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es0523845
    scopus: 2-s2.0-33646363667
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

    Browse

    All of ORFEOCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplinesThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplines
     

    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
    Send Feedback | Cookie Information
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV