The global atmospheric environment for the next generation
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Authors
Dentener, F.
Stevenson, D.
Ellingsen, K.
Van Noije, T.
Schultz, M.
Amann, M.
Atherton, C.
Bell, N.
Bergmann, D.
Bey, I.
Bouwman, L.
Butler, T.
Cofala, J.
Collins, B.
Drevet, J.
Doherty, R.
Eickhout, B.
Eskes, H.
Fiore, A.
Gauss, M.
Hauglustaine, D.
Horowitz, L.
Isaksen, I.S.A.
Josse, B.
Lawrence, M.
Krol, M.
Lamarque, J.F.
Montanaro, V.
Müller, J.F.
Peuch, V.H.
Pitari, G.
Pyle, J.
Rast, S.
Rodriguez, J.
Sanderson, M.
Savage, N.H.
Shindell, D.
Strahan, S.
Szopa, S.
Sudo, K.
Van Dingenen, R.
Wild, O.
Zeng, G.
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
Air quality legislation
Air quality policy objectives
Ensemble mean model
Wet depositions
Air quality
Ecosystems
Environmental impact
Global warming
Industrial emissions
Mathematical models
Nitrogen
Ozone
Atmospheric chemistry
methane
nitrogen
ozone
Air quality
Atmospheric chemistry
Ecosystems
Environmental impact
Global warming
Industrial emissions
Mathematical models
Nitrogen
Ozone
air quality
atmospheric pollution
climate change
environmental legislation
environmental modeling
global change
nitric oxide
ozone
pollution exposure
wet deposition
Africa
air quality
article
atmospheric transport
climate change
ecosystem
Europe
eutrophication
exhaust gas
industrialization
law
mathematical model
nitrogen deposition
photooxidation
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
troposphere
United States
water vapor
world health organization
Air Pollutants
Air Pollution
Animals
Atmosphere
Ecology
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring
Forecasting
Greenhouse Effect
Humans
Nitrogen
Ozone
Audience
Scientific
Date
2006Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO 2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 ± 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 ± 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated ±1 σ standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 ± 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 ± 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 ± 15 and 155 ± 37 mW m-2 for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 ± 15 mW m-2 for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m-2 yr-1. These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
Citation
Dentener, F.; Stevenson, D.; Ellingsen, K.; Van Noije, T.; Schultz, M.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Bouwman, L.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, B.; Drevet, J.; Doherty, R.; Eickhout, B.; Eskes, H.; Fiore, A.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Josse, B.; Lawrence, M.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J.F.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.F.; Peuch, V.H.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Sanderson, M.; Savage, N.H.; Shindell, D.; Strahan, S.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Van Dingenen, R.; Wild, O.; Zeng, G. (2006). The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. , Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 40, Issue 11, 3586-3594, DOI: 10.1021/es0523845.Identifiers
scopus: 2-s2.0-33646363667
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng