Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
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Authors
Vannitsem, Stéphane
Ekelmans, Pierre
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Audience
Scientific
Date
2018Publisher
Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geophysical Union
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
The causal dependences (in a dynamical sense) between the dynamics of three different coupled
ocean–atmosphere basins, the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the tropical Pacific region (Nino3.4), have
been explored using data from three reanalysis datasets, namely ORA-20C, ORAS4 and ERA-20C. The approach
is based on convergent cross mapping (CCM) developed by Sugihara et al. (2012) that allows for evaluating the
dependences between variables beyond the classical teleconnection patterns based on correlations.
The use of CCM on these data mostly reveals that (i) the tropical Pacific (Nino3.4 region) only influences the
dynamics of the North Atlantic region through its annual climatological cycle; (ii) the atmosphere over the North
Pacific is dynamically forcing the North Atlantic on a monthly basis; (iii) on longer timescales (interannual), the
dynamics of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are influencing each other through the ocean dynamics,
suggesting a connection through the thermohaline circulation.
These findings shed a new light on the coupling between these three different regions of the globe. In particular,
they call for a deep reassessment of the way teleconnections are interpreted and for a more rigorous way to
evaluate dynamical dependences between the different components of the climate system.
Citation
Vannitsem, Stéphane; Ekelmans, Pierre (2018). Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. , Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, 1063-1083, Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geophysical Union, DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018.Identifiers
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng