A multiscaling-based intensity-duration-frequency model for extreme precipitation
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Authors
Van de Vyver, Hans
Discipline
Natural sciences
Mathematics
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Civil engineering
Subject
Bayesian estimation, extreme precipitation, IDF curves, model selection, multiscaling
Audience
Scientific
Date
2018-05-30Publisher
Wiley
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.
Citation
Van de Vyver H. A multiscaling‐ based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation. Hydrological Processes. 2018;32:1635–1647.
Identifiers
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng