Probabilistic storm forecasts for wind farms in the North Sea
Van den Bergh, Joris
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Numerical Weather Prediction
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In the last few years there has been a significant increase in Belgian offshore wind energy production, with more capacity being expected by 2020. Storm events over the North Sea can impact many of these wind farms at roughly the same time, because they are situated relatively close together in a narrow band in the North Sea. Each wind turbine has a characteristic cut-out (wind) speed, above which they will shut down as a protection measure. In case of a major storm, many wind turbines could shut down at the same time, creating a so called cut-out event for the wind farm(s). When such cut-out events occur at multiple wind farms at the same time, this can lead to large imbalance risks in the electricity grid. To better understand and predict such events, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) is involved in the development of a dedicated storm forecast tool for Elia, the Belgian transmission system operator for high-voltage electricity.
Smet, G; Van den Bergh, J.; Termonia, P. (2019-01-31). Probabilistic storm forecasts for wind farms in the North Sea, ALADIN-HIRLAM Newsletter, Vol. 12, 17-24.