HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System
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Authors
Frogner, Inger-Lise
Andrae, Ulf
Bojarova, Jelena
Callado, Alfons
Escribà, Pau
Feddersen, Henrik
Hally, Alan
Kauhanen, Janne
Randriamampianina, Roger
Singleton, Andrew
Smet, Geert
van der Veen, Sibbo
Vignes, Ole
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
Numerical Weather Prediction
Ensemble forecasting
Limited Area Model
Audience
Scientific
Date
2019-12-06Publisher
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
HarmonEPS is the limited-area, short-range, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system developed and maintained by the HIRLAM consortium as part of the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system. HarmonEPS is the ensemble realization of HARMONIE–AROME, used for operational short-range forecasting in HIRLAM countries. HarmonEPS contains a range of perturbation methodologies to account for uncertainties in the initial conditions, forecast model, surface, and lateral boundary conditions. This paper describes the state of the system at the version labeled cycle 40 and highlights some directions for further development. The different perturbation methods available are evaluated and compared where appropriate. Several institutes have operational or preoperational implementations of HarmonEPS, such as MEPS (Finland, Norway, and Sweden), COMEPS (Denmark), IREPS (Ireland), KEPS (the Netherlands), AEMET-γSREPS (Spain), and RMI-EPS (Belgium), and these systems are briefly described and compared with the ensemble prediction system (IFS ENS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Citation
Frogner, Inger-Lise; Andrae, Ulf; Bojarova, Jelena; Callado, Alfons; Escribà, Pau; Feddersen, Henrik; Hally, Alan; Kauhanen, Janne; Randriamampianina, Roger; Singleton, Andrew; Smet, Geert; van der Veen, Sibbo; Vignes, Ole (2019-12-06). HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System. , Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 34, Issue 6, 1909-1937, American Meteorological Society (AMS), DOI: 10.1175/ WAF-D-19-0030.1.Identifiers
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng