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    HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System

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    Authors
    Frogner, Inger-Lise
    Andrae, Ulf
    Bojarova, Jelena
    Callado, Alfons
    Escribà, Pau
    Feddersen, Henrik
    Hally, Alan
    Kauhanen, Janne
    Randriamampianina, Roger
    Singleton, Andrew
    Smet, Geert
    van der Veen, Sibbo
    Vignes, Ole
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    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Numerical Weather Prediction
    Ensemble forecasting
    Limited Area Model
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2019-12-06
    Publisher
    American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    Metadata
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    Description
    HarmonEPS is the limited-area, short-range, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system developed and maintained by the HIRLAM consortium as part of the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system. HarmonEPS is the ensemble realization of HARMONIE–AROME, used for operational short-range forecasting in HIRLAM countries. HarmonEPS contains a range of perturbation methodologies to account for uncertainties in the initial conditions, forecast model, surface, and lateral boundary conditions. This paper describes the state of the system at the version labeled cycle 40 and highlights some directions for further development. The different perturbation methods available are evaluated and compared where appropriate. Several institutes have operational or preoperational implementations of HarmonEPS, such as MEPS (Finland, Norway, and Sweden), COMEPS (Denmark), IREPS (Ireland), KEPS (the Netherlands), AEMET-γSREPS (Spain), and RMI-EPS (Belgium), and these systems are briefly described and compared with the ensemble prediction system (IFS ENS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
    Citation
    Frogner, Inger-Lise; Andrae, Ulf; Bojarova, Jelena; Callado, Alfons; Escribà, Pau; Feddersen, Henrik; Hally, Alan; Kauhanen, Janne; Randriamampianina, Roger; Singleton, Andrew; Smet, Geert; van der Veen, Sibbo; Vignes, Ole (2019-12-06). HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System. , Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 34, Issue 6, 1909-1937, American Meteorological Society (AMS), DOI: 10.1175/ WAF-D-19-0030.1.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7505
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/ WAF-D-19-0030.1
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
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