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Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models

dc.contributor.authorHelsen, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorvan Lipzig, Nicole P. M.
dc.contributor.authorDemuzere, Matthias
dc.contributor.authorVanden Broucke, Sam
dc.contributor.authorCaluwaerts, Steven
dc.contributor.authorDe Cruz, Lesley
dc.contributor.authorDe Troch, Rozemien
dc.contributor.authorHamdi, Rafiq
dc.contributor.authorTermonia, Piet
dc.contributor.authorVan Schaeybroeck, Bert
dc.contributor.authorWouters, Hendrik
dc.coverage.spatialBelgiumen_US
dc.coverage.temporal1976-2100en_US
dc.date2020-02-01
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-30T13:40:27Z
dc.date.available2020-04-30T13:40:27Z
dc.identifier.citationHelsen, S., van Lipzig, N. P., Demuzere, M., Broucke, S. V., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Wouters, H. (2020). Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. Climate Dynamics, 54(3), 1267-1280.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1432-0894
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575
dc.identifier.urihttps://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7506
dc.descriptionConvection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, ~ 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherSpringer-Verlag GmbHen_US
dc.titleConsistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate modelsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.subject.frascatiPhysical sciencesen_US
dc.subject.frascatiEarth and related Environmental sciencesen_US
dc.audienceScientificen_US
dc.subject.freeCORDEX.been_US
dc.subject.freeConvection-permitting simulationsen_US
dc.subject.freeCOSMO-CLMen_US
dc.subject.freeALARO-0en_US
dc.subject.freeExtreme hourly precipitationen_US
dc.subject.freeClimate changeen_US
dc.subject.freeParameterizationen_US
dc.source.titleClimate Dynamicsen_US
dc.source.volume54en_US
dc.source.issue3en_US
dc.source.page1267-1280en_US
dc.relation.projectDRY-2-DRYen_US
Orfeo.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w
dc.relation.belspo-projectBR/143/A2/CORDEX.been_US


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