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    Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models

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    Authors
    Helsen, Samuel
    van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.
    Demuzere, Matthias
    Vanden Broucke, Sam
    Caluwaerts, Steven
    De Cruz, Lesley
    De Troch, Rozemien
    Hamdi, Rafiq
    Termonia, Piet
    Van Schaeybroeck, Bert
    Wouters, Hendrik
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    Discipline
    Physical sciences
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    CORDEX.be
    Convection-permitting simulations
    COSMO-CLM
    ALARO-0
    Extreme hourly precipitation
    Climate change
    Parameterization
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2020-02-01
    Publisher
    Springer-Verlag GmbH
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, ~ 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.
    Citation
    Helsen, S., van Lipzig, N. P., Demuzere, M., Broucke, S. V., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Wouters, H. (2020). Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. Climate Dynamics, 54(3), 1267-1280.
    Identifiers
    issn: 1432-0894
    issn: 0930-7575
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7506
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
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