Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models
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Authors
Helsen, Samuel
van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.
Demuzere, Matthias
Vanden Broucke, Sam
Caluwaerts, Steven
De Cruz, Lesley
De Troch, Rozemien
Hamdi, Rafiq
Termonia, Piet
Van Schaeybroeck, Bert
Wouters, Hendrik
Discipline
Physical sciences
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
CORDEX.be
Convection-permitting simulations
COSMO-CLM
ALARO-0
Extreme hourly precipitation
Climate change
Parameterization
Audience
Scientific
Date
2020-02-01Publisher
Springer-Verlag GmbH
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, ~ 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.
Citation
Helsen, S., van Lipzig, N. P., Demuzere, M., Broucke, S. V., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Wouters, H. (2020). Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. Climate Dynamics, 54(3), 1267-1280.
Identifiers
issn: 1432-0894
issn: 0930-7575
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng