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    On the use of near-neutral backward Lyapunov vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems

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    Authors
    Vannitsem, Stéphane
    Duan, Wansuo
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2020-06-02
    Publisher
    Springer
    Metadata
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    Description
    The use of coupled Backward Lyapunov Vectors (BLV) for ensemble forecast is demonstrated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere system of reduced order, the Modular Arbitrary Order Ocean–Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM). It is found that overall the most suitable BLVs to initialize a (multiscale) coupled ocean–atmosphere forecasting system are the ones associated with near-neutral and slightly negative Lyapunov exponents. This unexpected result is related to the fact that these BLVs display larger projections on the ocean variables than the others, leading to an appropriate spread for the ocean, and at the same time a rapid transfer of these errors toward the most unstable BLVs affecting predominantly the atmosphere is experienced. The latter dynamics is a natural property of any generic perturbation in nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems, allowing for a reliable spread with the atmosphere too. Furthermore, this specific choice becomes even more crucial when the goal is the forecasting of low-frequency variability at annual and decadal time scales. The implications of these results for operational ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems are briefly discussed.
    Citation
    Vannitsem, S., Duan, W. On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems. Clim Dyn 55, 1125–1139 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05313-3
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7606
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05313-3
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
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