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    Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory

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    Authors
    Demaeyer, Jonathan
    Vannitsem, Stéphane
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2020-05-27
    Publisher
    Copernicus
    Metadata
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    Description
    For most statistical postprocessing schemes used to correct weather forecasts, changes to the forecast model induce a considerable reforecasting effort. We present a new approach based on response theory to cope with slight model changes. In this framework, the model change is seen as a perturbation of the original forecast model. The response theory allows us then to evaluate the variation induced on the parameters involved in the statistical postprocessing, provided that the magnitude of this perturbation is not too large. This approach is studied in the context of a simple Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model and then on a more realistic, yet simple, quasi-geostrophic model. The analytical results for the former case help to pose the problem, while the application to the latter provides a proof of concept and assesses the potential performance of response theory in a chaotic system. In both cases, the parameters of the statistical postprocessing used – the Error-in-Variables Model Output Statistics (EVMOS) method – are appropriately corrected when facing a model change. The potential application in an operational environment is also discussed.
    Citation
    Demaeyer, J. and Vannitsem, S.: Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/7624
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
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