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A response model for the sunspot cycle

dc.contributor.authorDe Meyer, F.
dc.coverage.temporal21st century
dc.date2002
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-07T17:14:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-09T09:53:01Z
dc.date.available2016-03-07T17:14:12Z
dc.date.available2021-12-09T09:53:01Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8517
dc.descriptionThe sunspot record for the time interval 1700-2001 can be considered as a sequence of independent, partly overlapping events, triggered quasi-periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. The individual cycles are approximated by the step response of a band-pass dynamical system and the resulting model consists of the superposition of the response to a the independent pulses. The simulated sunspot data explain 98,4% of the cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8,2 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 117 for the solar cycle 23 occurring in 2000 is predicted, whereas the next cycle would start at about 2007 and will have a maximum around 111 in 2011. The model reproduces the high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950-2000 with a decrease afterwards. The model also recreates recurring sunspot minima and is linked to the phenomenon of the reversal of the solar magnetic field.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherIRM
dc.publisherKMI
dc.publisherRMI
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPublication scientifique et technique n° - Wetenschappelijke en technische publicatie nr.
dc.titleA response model for the sunspot cycle
dc.typeBook
dc.subject.frascatiEarth and related Environmental sciences
dc.audienceGeneral Public
dc.audienceScientific
dc.subject.freesunspot cycle
dc.source.volume21
dc.source.issuePublication scientifique et technique n° - Wetenschappelijke en technische publicatie nr.
dc.source.page17
Orfeo.peerreviewedYes


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