A response model for the sunspot cycle
Authors
De Meyer, F.
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
sunspot cycle
Audience
General Public
Scientific
Date
2002Publisher
IRM
KMI
RMI
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
The sunspot record for the time interval 1700-2001 can be considered as a sequence of independent, partly overlapping events, triggered quasi-periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. The individual cycles are approximated by the step response of a band-pass dynamical system and the resulting model consists of the superposition of the response to a the independent pulses. The simulated sunspot data explain 98,4% of the cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8,2 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 117 for the solar cycle 23 occurring in 2000 is predicted, whereas the next cycle would start at about 2007 and will have a maximum around 111 in 2011. The model reproduces the high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950-2000 with a decrease afterwards. The model also recreates recurring sunspot minima and is linked to the phenomenon of the reversal of the solar magnetic field.
Citation
De Meyer, F. (2002). A response model for the sunspot cycle. , Vol. 21, Issue Publication scientifique et technique n° - Wetenschappelijke en technische publicatie nr., 17, IRM,Identifiers
Type
Book
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng