Model Inspired Predictors for Model Output Statistics (MOS)
Authors
Termonia, P.
Deckmyn, A.
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
Model output statistics
Model evaluation/performance
Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
Audience
General Public
Scientific
Date
2008Publisher
IRM
KMI
RMI
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
This article addresses the problem of the choice of the predictors for the multiple linear regression in model output statistics. Rather than devising a selection procedure directly aimed at the minimization of the final scores, it is examined whether taking the model equations as a guidance may render the process more rational. To this end a notion of constant fractional errors is introduced. Experimental evidence is provided that they are approximately present in the model and that their impact is sufficiently linear to be corrected by a linear regression. Of particular interest are the forcing terms in the coupling of the physics parameterization to the dynamics of the model. Because such parameterizations are estimates of subgrid processes, they are expected to represent degrees of freedom that are independent of the resolved-scale model variables. To illustrate the value of this approach, it is shown that the temporal accumulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes and net solar and thermal radiation utilized as predictors add a statistically significant improvement to the 2-m temperature scores.
Citation
Termonia, P.; Deckmyn, A. (2008). Model Inspired Predictors for Model Output Statistics (MOS). , Vol. 45, Issue Publication scientifique et technique n° - Wetenschappelijke en technische publicatie nr., IRM,Identifiers
Type
Book
Peer-Review
Yes
Language
eng