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    Toward a phase-space cartography of the short- and medium-range predictability of weather regimes

    Authors
    Vannitsem, S.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    cartography
    predictability
    weather
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2001
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    We compare the short- and medium-range predictability of weather regimes of a quasigeostrophic model as defined by a hierarchical cluster algorithm and a Lyapunov-based clustering method recently introduced in the literature. Both procedures lead to weather regimes displaying very different predictability properties on the short and medium range bases. While the former does not distinguish between stable and unstable weather regimes, the latter leads to clusters which do not display a good medium range predictability. We introduce a new clustering method taking advantages of the two previous techniques. Its application in the context of the quasi-geostrophic model gives rise to regimes possessing at the same time a good medium range skill and well separated instability properties, indicating the possibility to build a systematic cartography of the short-term predictability of weather fields in phase space.
    Citation
    Vannitsem, S. (2001). Toward a phase-space cartography of the short- and medium-range predictability of weather regimes. , Issue 0, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8602
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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