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"Ensemble dispersion forecasting, Part I: Concept, approach and indicators"

dc.contributor.authorGalmarini, S.
dc.contributor.authorBianconi, R.
dc.contributor.authorKlug, W.
dc.contributor.authorMikkelsen, T.
dc.contributor.authorAddis, R.
dc.contributor.authorAndronopoulos, S.
dc.contributor.authorAstrup, P.
dc.contributor.authorBaklanov, A.
dc.contributor.authorBartnicki, J.
dc.contributor.authorBartzis, J.C.
dc.contributor.authorBellasio, R.
dc.contributor.authorBompay, F.
dc.contributor.authorBuckley, R.
dc.contributor.authorBouzom, M.
dc.contributor.authorChampion, H.
dc.contributor.authorAmours, R.D.
dc.contributor.authorDavakis, E.
dc.contributor.authorEleveld, H.
dc.contributor.authorGeertsema, G.T.
dc.contributor.authorGlaab, H.
dc.contributor.authorKollax, M.
dc.contributor.authorIlvonen, M.
dc.contributor.authorManning, A.
dc.contributor.authorPechinger, U.
dc.contributor.authorPersson, C.
dc.contributor.authorPolreich, E.
dc.contributor.authorPotemski, S.
dc.contributor.authorProdanova, M.
dc.contributor.authorSaltbones, J.
dc.contributor.authorSlaper, H.
dc.contributor.authorSofiev, M.A.
dc.contributor.authorSyrakov, D.
dc.contributor.authorSorensen, J. H.
dc.contributor.authorVan der Auwera, L.
dc.contributor.authorValkama, I.
dc.contributor.authorZelazny, R.
dc.coverage.temporal21st century
dc.date2004
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-07T16:16:48Z
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-09T09:53:30Z
dc.date.available2016-03-07T16:16:48Z
dc.date.available2021-12-09T09:53:30Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8670
dc.descriptionThe paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models’ agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherIRM
dc.publisherKMI
dc.publisherRMI
dc.relation.ispartofseriesAtmospheric Environment,38,28
dc.title"Ensemble dispersion forecasting, Part I: Concept, approach and indicators"
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.frascatiEarth and related Environmental sciences
dc.audienceGeneral Public
dc.audienceScientific
dc.subject.freedispersion
dc.subject.freeforecast
dc.subject.freeanalysis
dc.source.issueAtmospheric Environment,38,28
dc.source.pagepp. 4607-4617
Orfeo.peerreviewedNot pertinent


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