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    Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions

    Authors
    Roulin, E.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Hydrological ensemble prediction system
    forecasts
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2007
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System(EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.
    Citation
    Roulin, E. (2007). Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. , Issue Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 725-737, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8733
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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