Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions
Authors
Roulin, E.
Discipline
Earth and related Environmental sciences
Subject
Hydrological ensemble prediction system
forecasts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Audience
General Public
Scientific
Date
2007Publisher
IRM
KMI
RMI
Metadata
Show full item recordDescription
A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System(EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.
Citation
Roulin, E. (2007). Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. , Issue Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 725-737, IRM,Identifiers
Type
Article
Peer-Review
Not pertinent
Language
eng