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    Dynamical properties of Model Output Statistics forecasts

    Authors
    Vannitsem, S.
    Nicolis, C.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Model output statistics
    Model errors
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2008
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order systems displaying chaos indicate that MOS schemes are able to partly correct the impact of both initial and model errors on model forecasting. Nevertheless the amplitude of the correction is much more sensitive to the presence of (state dependent) model errors, and if initial condition errors are much larger than model uncertainties then MOS schemes become less effective. Furthermore, the amplitude of the MOS correction depends strongly on the statistical properties of the phase space velocity difference between the model and reference systems, such as its mean and its covariance with the model predictors in the MOS scheme. Large corrections are expected when the predictors are closely related to the sources of model errors. The practical implications of these results are briefly discussed.
    Citation
    Vannitsem, S.; Nicolis, C. (2008). Dynamical properties of Model Output Statistics forecasts. , Issue Montlhy Weather Review, Vol 136, p 405-419, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8760
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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