• Login
     
    View Item 
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    • RMI publications
    • View Item
    •   ORFEO Home
    • Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    • RMI publications
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    A unified linear Model Output Statistics scheme for both deterministic and ensemble forecasts

    Authors
    Vannitsem, S.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    EVMOS
    NGR
    post-processing
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2009
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    An extension of the classical linear Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique is proposed allowing for the post-processing of ensemble forecasts. In this new approach, the cost function on which the least square parameter estimation is based takes into account the presence of errors in both observations and model observables (referred to as Error-in-Variables MOS, EVMOS), unldike the classical linear MOS cost function whose implicit assumption is the absence of errors in the model observables. It allows for the maintenance of an appropriate variability for the corrected forecasts, even for long lead times and for providing a framework in which both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can be corrected. The scheme is successfully tested for ensemble correction in the context of an idealized low-order chaotic system, the Lorenz atmospheric model, in the presence of model errors, and compared with a classical technique, known as the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) method. The potential use of this approach is also briefly discussed. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
    Citation
    Vannitsem, S. (2009). A unified linear Model Output Statistics scheme for both deterministic and ensemble forecasts. , Issue 0, 1/15/2015, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8815
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

    Browse

    All of ORFEOCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplinesThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDisciplines
     

    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
    Send Feedback | Cookie Information
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV