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    Stable estimations for extreme wind speeds. An application to Belgium

    Authors
    Van de Vyver, H.
    Delcloo, A.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Generalized Pareto distributions (GPD)
    wind gusts
    Belgium
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2011
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    Generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) are frequently applied for the statistical analysis of extreme wind speeds. A central topic in extreme-value theory is the adaptive estimation of the extreme-value index γ. Several authors have demonstrated a high sensitivity of γ against the threshold when analyzing extreme wind speeds. This undesirable effect introduces the difficulty to provide reliable quantile estimates. This paper aims to bring this problem to meteorologists and proposes a stable estimator (the Zipf estimator) for γ. This could allow a more objective prior identification of the sign and range of γ. The method is based on regression in the so-called generalized quantile plots. A comparative study with a classical estimator (the probability-weightedmethod) is made and it is shown that the Zipf estimator significantly decreases the variance in the calibration of the GPD to extreme wind gusts. Finally, the new methodology is applied to get improved prediction of extreme wind gusts in Belgium.
    Citation
    Van de Vyver, H.; Delcloo, A. (2011). Stable estimations for extreme wind speeds. An application to Belgium. , Issue Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 105, Issue 3, 417-429, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8898
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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