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    Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts

    Authors
    Van Schaeybroeck, B.
    Vannitsem, S.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Climatological reliability
    Lorenz 96 model
    EVMOS
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2012
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    We develop post-processing approaches based on linear regression that make ensemble forecasts more reliable. First of all we enforce climatological reliability (CR) in the sense that the total variability of the forecast is equal the variability of the observations. Second, we impose ensemble reliability (ER) such that the spread around the ensemble mean of the observation coincides with the one of the ensemble members. Since, generally, different ensembles have different sizes, standard post-processing methods tend to overcorrect ensembles with large spreads. By taking variable values of the error variances, our forecast becomes more reliable at short lead times as reflected by a flatter rank histogram. We illustrate our findings using the Lorenz 1963 model.
    Citation
    Van Schaeybroeck, B.; Vannitsem, S. (2012). Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. , Issue Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, 347-352, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8915
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
    NewsHelpdeskBELSPO OA Policy

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