Self‐oscillations and predictability in climate dynamics
Earth and related Environmental sciences
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A class of non‐linear climatic models giving rise to sustained oscillations is considered. The evolution equations are cast into a “normal form” which allows one to distinguish between two different types of quantities: a radial variable, which obeys a closed equation and has strong stability properties; and a phase variable which is extremely labile. It is shown that as a result of these peculiar stability properties, the disturbances or random fluctuations acting on the system tend to deregulate the oscillatory behavior. It is concluded that such a phenomenon is a basic reason for progressive loss of predictability.
CitationNicolis, C. (1984). Self‐oscillations and predictability in climate dynamics. , Tellus A, Vol. 36A, Issue 1, 1-10, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1984.tb00217.x.