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    Predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions: Lyapunov exponents and error dynamics

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    Authors
    Vannitsem, Stéphane
    Discipline
    Physical sciences
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2017-03
    Publisher
    AIP Publishing
    Metadata
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    Description
    The deterministic equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere (and of the climate system) are known to display the property of sensitivity to initial conditions. In the ergodic theory of chaos, this property is usually quantified by computing the Lyapunov exponents. In this review, these quantifiers computed in a hierarchy of atmospheric models (coupled or not to an ocean) are analyzed, together with their local counterparts known as the local or finite-time Lyapunov exponents. It is shown in particular that the variability of the local Lyapunov exponents (corresponding to the dominant Lyapunov exponent) decreases when the model resolution increases. The dynamics of (finite-amplitude) initial condition errors in these models is also reviewed, and in general found to display a complicated growth far from the asymptotic estimates provided by the Lyapunov exponents. The implications of these results for operational (high resolution) atmospheric and climate modelling are also discussed.
    Citation
    Vannitsem, Stéphane (2017-03). Predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions: Lyapunov exponents and error dynamics. , Chaos, Vol. 27, 032101, AIP Publishing, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4979042.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/6982
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4979042
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
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