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    Skill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions

    Authors
    Roulin, E.
    Vannitsem, S.
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
    Belgian catchments
    Hydrological prediction system
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2005
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments. The skill of streamflow forecast for high flows is analyzed using a 6-yr period of archived EPS forecasts. The probabilistic skill of this hydrological prediction system is much better than the one based on historical precipitation inputs and extends beyond 9 days for both catchments. The skill is larger in winter than in summer. The use of this approach for operational forecasts is briefly discussed.
    Citation
    Roulin, E.; Vannitsem, S. (2005). Skill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions. , Issue Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, No. 5, 729-744, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8658
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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