Skill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions
Earth and related Environmental sciences
precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Hydrological prediction system
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A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments. The skill of streamflow forecast for high flows is analyzed using a 6-yr period of archived EPS forecasts. The probabilistic skill of this hydrological prediction system is much better than the one based on historical precipitation inputs and extends beyond 9 days for both catchments. The skill is larger in winter than in summer. The use of this approach for operational forecasts is briefly discussed.
CitationRoulin, E.; Vannitsem, S. (2005). Skill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions. , Issue Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, No. 5, 729-744, IRM,