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    Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse

    Authors
    de Wit, M.J.M.
    van den Hurk, B.
    Warmerdam, P.M.M.
    Torfs, P.J.J.F.
    Roulin, E.
    van Deursen, W.P.A.
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    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Subject
    Meuse
    1911-2003
    RCM
    summer
    Northwest Europe
    atmospheric greenhouse-gas Contentrations
    Audience
    General Public
    Scientific
    Date
    2007
    Publisher
    IRM
    KMI
    RMI
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Description
    In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records from the Meuse basin for the period 1911–2003 are analysed. The primary aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical) low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies, and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed record (1911–2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multiseasonal droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range of the observed record for the period 1911–2003. The impact of climate change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model. This simulation indicates tha climate change will lead to a decrease in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season. However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow conditions of the Meuse.
    Citation
    de Wit, M.J.M.; van den Hurk, B.; Warmerdam, P.M.M.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Roulin, E.; van Deursen, W.P.A. (2007). Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse. , Issue Climatic Change, 82, 351-372, IRM,
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/8761
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Not pertinent
    Language
    eng
    Links
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