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    Extratropical low-frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced-order coupled model study

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    Authors
    Vannitsem, Stéphane
    Demaeyer, Jonathan
    Ghil, Michael
    Discipline
    Earth and related Environmental sciences
    Audience
    Scientific
    Date
    2021-05-14
    Publisher
    Wiley
    Metadata
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    Description
    The authors have investigated the variability of a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the Earth's midlatitudes, subject to the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study reveals that multiple climates may coexist, each of which is characterized by distinct types of low-frequency variability (LFV) and predictability properties. When the ENSO forcing is periodic, these climates are fairly robust against perturbations, but when it is chaotic, small perturbations induce transitions between the different climates. These properties could have profound consequences for extratropical climate predictions, since ensemble averaging may no longer be a valid approach to ascertain the LFV signal.
    Citation
    Vannitsem, S., Demaeyer, J., & Ghil, M. Extratropical low-frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced-order coupled model study. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, e2021MS002530. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002530,2021.
    Identifiers
    uri: https://orfeo.belnet.be/handle/internal/9796
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002530
    Type
    Article
    Peer-Review
    Yes
    Language
    eng
    Links
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