Extratropical low-frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced-order coupled model study
Earth and related Environmental sciences
MetadataShow full item record
The authors have investigated the variability of a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the Earth's midlatitudes, subject to the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study reveals that multiple climates may coexist, each of which is characterized by distinct types of low-frequency variability (LFV) and predictability properties. When the ENSO forcing is periodic, these climates are fairly robust against perturbations, but when it is chaotic, small perturbations induce transitions between the different climates. These properties could have profound consequences for extratropical climate predictions, since ensemble averaging may no longer be a valid approach to ascertain the LFV signal.
Vannitsem, S., Demaeyer, J., & Ghil, M. Extratropical low-frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced-order coupled model study. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, e2021MS002530. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002530,2021.